The Perfect Storm

BYU’s dream season came to a screeching halt on Tuesday night when Brandon Davies was suspended for the rest of the season, and then the Cougars stalled terribly as they tried to get going again amidst all the media attention and scrutiny that was prevalent throughout the day on Wednesday.  It was as ugly over the airwaves as I’m sure it was to witness in person or on TV.  The rebounding prowess and hot-shooting demonstrated by the 19-11 New Mexico Lobos on Wednesday night stood in stark contrast to BYU’s worst performance of the season.  In the span of only 24-48 hours, BYU went from the highest of highs as a strong contender to receive a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and make a possible run to the Final Four, to the lowest of lows as they squandered the opportunity to claim at least a share of the Mountain West Conference Championship and a No. 1 seed in the Conference tournament while shooting a un-Cougar-like 34 percent from the field – at home – including 5-26 from 3-point range.  It was the perfect storm.

Jackson Emery can't believe how quickly
the momentum has changed against the Cougars.

Throughout the game, the BYU radio announcers kept saying: “There’s still time for the Cougars to make a run, but they have to get going right now!”  Unfortunately, the Cougars never got going.  Emotionally drained from the ups and downs of winning a huge game at SDSU on Saturday, being projected as a No. 1 seed on Monday, and dealing with losing a brother (as so many players said after the game) on Tuesday, BYU never was able to pull within single digits in the second half.  With every second half point Jimmer scored (he scored 25 of his 33 points in the second half and 25 of BYU’s 38), New Mexico had an answer by either getting a big rebound, a defensive stop, or a clutch three-pointer.  For the second time this season, the New Mexico players played their best game against BYU.  Even The Jimmer admitted that New Mexico has their number.  Lightning struck twice.

Although I believe it is still way too early to panic, this is eerily similar to when Florida State waltzed into Lavell Edwards Stadium in 2009 after the BYU football team had come off a season-opening victory over #3-ranked Oklahoma, a dominating performance on the road against Tulane, and had quickly risen to a #7 national ranking.  The season was young yet BYU was poised and ready to make a run towards a BCS Championship Game appearance.  They had the talent and game experience at all the key positions on both offense and defense, and their performance during the first part of the season gave every Cougar fan the hope that a dream season was in store.  In that game, Florida State dominated the Cougars as the hope and excitement about a championship season was ripped from our grasp on our home turf.  FSU won 54-28 and dominated by outplaying the Cougars in every single facet of the game (except, of course, in turnovers given away – we won that battle 5-1!).  A Top-10 ranked BYU team underperformed and they were exposed.  Since the most important part of its season was still left to play, the Football team made adjustments and played to their strengths.  BYU ended up winning 9 of their last 10 games and dominated Oregon State in the Vegas Bowl to end the season with an 11-2 record and a #12 national ranking.

BYU fans remember this feeling after
Florida State came to town in 2009.

Now, the obvious difference is that the 2009 Football team didn’t lose a key starter that changed the entire makeup of their team and a teammate that the rest of the players had loved and were extremely comfortable playing with.  After the Davies suspension on Tuesday, time is what the Cougars needed going into the New Mexico game, and it was simply not on their side.  They still had to go into the storm on Wednesday night and perform as a team.  They didn’t.  The loss to New Mexico only counts as one loss, and even though San Diego seems like it was a month ago, BYU is still in control of its own destiny for the No. 1 seed in next week’s Conference tournament. BYU must make key adjustments that play to their strengths because every team from here on out is going to try and do exactly what New Mexico did:  Go inside, go inside, rebound, be ready to shoot the 3 as the Cougar defense helps inside, and go inside.  Do the Cougars become Syracuse-like and play zone 100% of the time, trying to create turnovers by getting their hands in passing lanes as was the case in the second half of the SDSU game?  Offensively, if the Cougars expect to win at least a share of the MWC Championship and make a run through the MWC and NCAA tournament, they need to shoot better than 34% from the field, get more than a combined 19 points between Abouo, Emery and Hartsock (Hartsock had 0 points against UNM), and not let the pressure of playing with one less brother make them feel like they can’t run their offense and only rely on the outside shot.  Dave Rose and the coaching staff will not let the loss of Davies become an excuse in the minds of the players or the fans.

Charles Abouo will need to be a key contributor
for the Cougars to make a deep run.

The reality is that the pressure to make a Final Four run is off at this point.  The entire country is ready to drop BYU to a 6-7 seed, and the fans’ expectations of a National Championship have gone out the window – just as they did after FSU left town in September 2009.  

Is there still time for BYU to make a run?  Absolutely.  But they have to get going right now!  Let’s just hope we don’t have to play New Mexico again…