MWC Bracketology

What a season for BYU and San Diego State!  There are very few people who would have predicted that the MWC Championship game would feature two top-ten teams.  In fact, who would have predicted that all three matchups between the two teams this year would have taken place while both teams were ranked in the top ten?  BYU finishes 30-4 while SDSU finishes 32-2 - and 31-0 against all teams without Jimmer Fredette.  Both teams knew they were going to the NCAA tournament before the game. The MWC Championship game was all about seeding, Sundays, and geography.

SDSU did the "Jimmering" in

the MWC Championship game.

On Saturday night in the MWC Championship game, San Diego State exhibited all the traits of a team that could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament (senior leadership, powerful frontline, good guard play, and an experienced coach).  Being the champion of the #4-ranked conference in the country during both the regular season and the tournament merits a No. 1 seed when the brackets come out tomorrow.  But if I'm San Diego State, I could care less if I am a No. 1 seed or not, all I care about is being in the West bracket.  Even a No. 2 seed in the West bracket is more favorable than a No. 1 seed in any other bracket (East, Southeast, Southwest) because SDSU would be able to play their first and second round games in Denver/Tucson while potentially playing their regional games a short bus ride away from San Diego in Anaheim. I predict that SDSU will end up as the No. 2 seed in the West when the brackets come out on Sunday night.  I'll take a bus ride to the Sweet 16 over a No. 1 seed any day.

BYU has long been projected to be a No. 2 seed in the West by many "bracketologists" because their well-rounded team was cruising through the MWC while defeating SDSU twice during the regular season.  They were even projected a couple of weeks ago (which seems like a month ago) to be the No. 1 seed in the West.  The No. 2 seed in the West is favorable for BYU due to the geographical advantages as well, but it is also one of the "pods" within the bracket that allow for "No Sunday" play throughout the tournament.  BYU's unwillingness to compete on Sundays is a regulation that the NCAA committee considers when placing BYU in the NCAA tournament.  In years past, it has seemed that BYU was placed into a lower seed in order to accommodate the "No Sunday" rule.  The "No Sunday" rule combined with a 3-2 record since the suspension of Brandon Davies will most definitely move them out of the West No. 2 seed Denver/Tucson-Anaheim preferred bracket, and considering the other "No Sunday" location options they may be moved out of the West Region entirely.

Jimmer would love a No. 2 seed in the West,

but a No. 3 or 4 is more likely for the Cougs.

Given BYU's RPI rating, star power (The Jimmer), and strong season, BYU should receive no lower than a No. 4 seed (or else the committee will have some serious explaining to do), which in the West bracket would put the Cougars in Tampa or Tucson for the first and second rounds, and if they were to advance to the Sweet 16, back to Anaheim.  Another alternative is that they could be shipped to the Southeast regional as the No. 3 seed.  This would give the Cougars a sense of accomplishment going in as a high No. 3 seed, but may not be preferable from a travel standpoint.  Going from Utah to Tampa/Tucson to Utah and potentially back to New Orleans may be difficult on a team that already appears slightly fatigued from an emotional couple of weeks and three intense MWC tournament games.  Although it really shouldn't be taken as a sign of disrespect, I believe the committee will put BYU in as the No. 4 seed, citing the loss of Davies and BYU's loss of momentum down the stretch as the key factors.

Hey, 2 No. 5 seeds made the Final Four last year, including Butler, who advanced to the Championship Game.

I love Mormon rap songs about Jimmer - check it out:  Teach Me How To Jimmer