That's How The Ping Pong Ball Bounces

The NFL Draft, which I wrote about here, is a fantastic media and entertainment spectacle that seems to become a bigger event every year.  Although the NBA Draft is not nearly as large an event because it only consists of two rounds compared with the NFL's seven, it can still create some significant drama.  One of the reasons why the NBA Draft is so intriguing is due to the NBA Draft Lottery.  The first 14 picks in the NBA Draft belong to the teams that miss the playoffs each season.  The Lottery determines the order of these first 14 picks by selecting which teams will obtain the first 3 picks of the Draft, then the remaining 11 picks are assigned in reverse order of win-loss record.

NBA Lottery teams are at the mercy of the ping pong ball during
the NBA Draft Lottery every year.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had the best chance (25%) of obtaining the #1 pick (and could pick no lower than 4th) as a result of having the worst record in the NBA this year.  The Houston Rockets was the least likely team to score the highest pick with only a 0.5% probability of coming out on top.  The Utah Jazz and the Cleveland Cavaliers each have 2 Lottery picks this year - one pick being their own by not making the playoffs and the second pick that was obtained through another team via previous trades.  The Jazz had a combined probability of 8.2% to come out on top while the Cavaliers held a Timberwolf-like 22.8% chance of having their ping pong ball come out of the pot first.

The Houston Rockets were the only team discussed above that was not surprised by the way their ping pong balls bounced - they will pick 14 this year.  The Minnesota Timberwolves became the 16th team in the 18 years of the NBA Draft Lottery with the highest probability of obtaining the #1 pick to NOT win the lottery.  The Timberwolves also had a 21.5% chance of coming out second - and it did. The Cleveland Cavaliers surprisingly won the lottery with their pick from the Los Angeles Clippers, which came along with Baron Davis earlier this year, and only had a 2.8% chance of coming out first.  Apparently the Basketball Gods have compassion on Cavalier fans after all since LeBron James left them in 2010 for the Miami Heat.  The Jazz, meanwhile, cashed in their New Jersey Net pick that they received in the Deron Williams trade by finishing third, which they had a 9.4% chance of winning.

David Kahn and fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves are
not fans of ping pong or the NBA Draft Lottery today.

I'm sure Minnesota fans will agree with me today, but I don't feel like the NBA Draft Lottery is the best way to help those teams that need help the most.  David Kahn, the Minnesota Timberwolves' Director of Basketball Operations even insinuated that the NBA Draft is rigged in order to create storylines and headlines for the NBA.  Maybe I'm not a conspiracy theorist like Kahn who watched his #1 pick become a #2 pick right before his eyes, but the system is broken.  Sure, Minnesota had the best chance to win the #1 pick, but they still had a 75% chance to NOT have the #1 pick (Remember, 16 out of 18 teams have fallen to the same fate).  Sure, Minnesota would have picked no worse than #4 under the Lottery rules, but Minnesota will still be at the mercy of Cleveland this year in taking the player that may be best to improve their team.  One of the principal reasons for using the Lottery-style placement of the top 3 picks is to try to ensure that teams don't "tank" at the end of each season and try to "win" the worst record so they can obtain the #1 pick like what is alleged to happen from time to time in the NFL.  But let's be honest, Minnesota couldn't really help it last year.  They were bad and lost the most games because they need better players, but thanks to the Lottery, they will have to watch the player that may have helped them the most go to the Cavaliers.

Many will debate over the course of the next month who will be the #1 pick, who will draft the first international player, and of course, who will draft The Jimmer, but for now the ping pong balls have spoken...and the fans in at least Cleveland and Utah like what they have to say....just don't ask the Timberwolves how they feel about it.