Can BYU be a Big Game Team?

BYU vs. TCU Preview
When BYU returns to Dallas for the first time since they beat #3-ranked Oklahoma in September 2009, they will face an opportunity on national television to exorcise a couple of significant demons that have doomed Bronco Mendenhall, BYU, and BYU fans for the past 6 years: 1) The TCU Horned Frogs and 2) The Big Game.  Let me explain why this Friday's game is so important for Bronco and BYU.

Coach Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs have been a thorn in
Bronco Mendenhall's side during the past three years.

This is only the 11th time BYU and TCU have squared off on the football field, and through the first 10 games the series is tied 5-5.  Doesn't seem that bad, right?  Well, does 101-17 ring a bell for you BYU fans?  If not, I'm sure you're like me as you've tried to forget the combined scores of the last 3 TCU victories over BYU from 2008-10 - an average score of 34-6!  What's more, the most "competitive" game BYU has had since beating TCU at home in 2007 was last year when the young Cougar team was only trailing #4-ranked TCU 3-0 with only a couple of minutes left in the first half before eventually falling 31-3.

Despite his recent lack of success against TCU, Bronco Mendenhall is looking forward to this made-for-TV matchup (thanks, ESPN!).  "I like the matchup and I like the game. I think it is a good football game that should have a lot of intrigue. Two teams with similar records and we're anxious to see if we can improve against this opponent."  If BYU is going to improve against this opponent, they will no doubt have to move the ball on offense and keep TCU from breaking out big plays against BYU's defense.  BYU will rely on its mid-season revelation, QB Riley Nelson, to continue to carry the Cougar offense as he has since he took over during another Friday night game against Utah State.

BYU Quarterback Riley Nelson has carried to Cougars on the ground and through
the air to a five-game winning streak. Nelson's performance will be key to a BYU
victory against TCU on Friday night on ESPN.

Not only has BYU's offensive efficiency improved but BYU has yet to have a "3 and out" on offense since Riley took the reins.  In fact, BYU has only punted 3 times during the 3 1/2 games that Riley has quarterbacked.  Bronco continues, "Riley's ability to create and get us out of bad plays with covered receivers and scramble for first downs helps keep momentum. Against a team like TCU that scores so many points and a team like TCU that we haven't even averaged a touchdown against in three years, we need to hold onto the ball and score points."

Do Bronco and BYU have a "Big Game Phobia"?  Ever since Bronco took over in 2005 and returned the BYU program to national prominence, BYU has been prevented from competing for national championship due to slow starts (such as this year's 1-2 start) and inconsistent play in Big Game opportunities.  I classify a Big Game as either a game against a nationally-ranked opponent or against a prominent football program that would give BYU the opportunity to jump onto the national scene and jump up the voter and BCS rankings.  Since 2008, for example, I would classify the following regular season games as Big Games:

2011 - @ Texas, vs. Utah
2010 - @ Utah, @ TCU, @ FSU
2009 - @ OU (Cowboy Stadium), vs. FSU, vs. TCU, vs. Utah
2008 - @ Utah, @ TCU

BYU's record in those 11 games?  2 wins and 9 losses.  One can only wonder what BYU's conference affiliation may be had they they won 3 or 4 more of those games.  Would the Pac-12 or Big 12 have considered BYU even more seriously if they had won those games against Utah and/or TCU?  I absolutely think that is the case.

BYU Running Back Bryan Kariya was instrumental in leading the Cougars
past Oklahoma in 2009, and he will be again be leading the team to Dallas.

So there has to be at least one thing that BYU can do to reverse the trend, right?  Turnovers.  BYU simply has to protect the ball and keep TCU's offense off the field. Of the Big Games above, the only game where BYU had a worse turnover ratio and actually won the game was against OU in 2009 despite giving up 4 turnovers and only taking away 2 from the Sooners.

If BYU expects to win or even compete on Friday, BYU will need to move the ball on the ground (200+ yards) and through the air (200+ yards).  Assuming BYU can do both of those things while not turning the ball over, BYU will extend its winning streak to 6 games and a double-digit win season can be within reach.

BYU 30, TCU 21.

Go Cougs!