Halftime!

Almost a week after the NBA Finals began, the Miami Heat hold a 2 games to 1 lead in the best-of-7 series against the Dallas Mavericks.  If my prediction holds true that Miami will win the series 4 games to 2, then we are literally at "halftime" of the series.  As I wrote about here, there are three keys that will determine the eventual NBA champion, so let's evaluate how each team is doing and what they need to do to make adjustments for the "second half".

Who will guard the German?
After watching this ESPN Sports Science clip, it is hard to imagine anyone being able to stop Dirk Nowitzki.  And after 3 games in the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat haven't really been able to hold down Dirk.  They kind of just have to do their best and hope he misses.  Dirk has had 27, 24, and 34 points in Games 1, 2, and 3, respectively, including 15 points in the 4th Quarter in Game 3 when he almost single-handedly carried the Mavericks to victory as he did in Game 2.  In Game 2, Nowitzki scored the game-winning layup with 3.6 seconds left as he made Chris Bosh look like a spectator more than a defender.

Nowitzki's near perfect performance in Games 1-3 has kept the
Mavericks alive in the NBA Finals.

When Nowitzki had the chance to tie Game 3 on the last play of the game, the Heat countered with Udonis Haslem to guard  Nowitzki.  Dirk back-rimmed the game-tying shot as Haslem did the best he could to "defend" Nowitzki, but Dirk still had plenty of space to get off a shot and simply missed.  Look for the Heat to continue to rotate Bosh, Haslem, and Joel Anthony on Nowitzki, but you can also expect Dirk to continue to average at least 28.3 points a game because of his ability to continue to get to the free-throw line where Dirk has made his first 24 free throws of the Finals.  He will be looking to break Reggie Miller's record of 25 straight free throws to start the Finals when he takes the court on Tuesday in Game 4.

Advantage: The German (Mavericks)


Dirk/Kidd vs. LeBron/Bosh
This comparison is overshadowed by the fact Miami also has the NBA Finals MVP thus far in Dwayne Wade, and let's be honest, the Mavericks need A LOT more production from players not named Nowitzki and Kidd to beat the star-studded Heat.  Dirk has done his part.  The 38-year old Jason Kidd has done his best to stay with Wade on the defensive end, but outside of Kidd's 7.0 assists a game (it helps your assist total when you get to pass it to Dirk a lot), his offensive production has been sparse (Game 1-9 points, Game 2-6 points, Game 3-9 points).

2008 USA Olympic Gold Medal champions, LeBron James (left, 8) and Jason
Kidd (right, 5) are battling for the right to be called NBA champion. Fortunately
for James, he still has fellow Olympic teammates, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.

LeBron has filled up the stat sheet across the board as Wade has carried the scoring load, especially down the stretch.  LeBron only scored 17 points in Game 3, but he had 9 key assists, including the dish to Bosh for the shot that put the Heat ahead for good.  The X-factor in my opinion, Chris Bosh, made the difference as he was 5-9 from the field, including the eventual game-winning shot, for 11 points in the 2nd half of Game 3.  Bosh had played off and on (mostly off) in Games 1 and 2, so when he stepped up and made his shots in the second half of Game 3, it was just enough to pull out the victory on the road.


Advantage: LeBron/Bosh (Heat)

Who will win the 4th Quarter?
This has been and will continue to be the most important factor in determining the eventual NBA champion.  In Game 1, Miami outscored Dallas 27-23 and made enough key shots down the stretch to keep the lead out of reach within the last couple of minutes for Dirk to have an impact.  In Game 2, Dirk and the Mavericks ended the game on a 17-2 run as they overcame Miami's stingy defense to pull out the victory on Nowitzki's game-winning shot in the final seconds.  In Game 3, Dirk brought his game and had 15 points in the 4th Quarter; however, the rest of the Mavericks' roster combined for just 7 points in the final 12 minutes.  In each of the 1st 2 games, Dirk scored better than 1/3 of Dallas' 4th Quarter points.  In Game 3, he scored more than 2/3 of the Mavericks' points.  Dallas will need players such as Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, and Jason Kidd to provide at least some scoring punch to help carry the Mavericks past the Miami defense when it matters most.

(Slight) Advantage: Heat

Jason Terry (31) must be more productive and explosive as he was against the
Lakers and the Thunder in order for the Mavericks to beat the Heat.

Although it seems as though every time Miami wins a game in these playoffs, everyone picks them to run the table, Dallas will be able to break through and win a second game in the series.  The series has been too close and Dirk has been too good for the series not to go back to Miami for Game 6.  The difference-maker has to be Jason Terry who will be able to find some space and hit some shots against the defense of LeBron James (who wanted to take his talents back to South Beach to win the NBA Championship anyway, right?).  Look for Terry to go off with the Mavericks in a must-win situation while still at home in Dallas.  Otherwise, it's tattoo-removal time...

Parting Shot:  Games 2 and 3 of the NBA Finals were each decided by 2 points.  According the Elias Sports Bureau, it's the first time since the 1998 NBA Finals that back-to-back games have been decided by 2 points or less when Michael Jordan tore my heart out (twice) and carried his Bulls past my Jazz in Games 5 and 6 after the series was tied at 2.  (Why do I remind myself of such painful memories?)