Can BYU be a Big Game Team?

BYU vs. TCU Preview
When BYU returns to Dallas for the first time since they beat #3-ranked Oklahoma in September 2009, they will face an opportunity on national television to exorcise a couple of significant demons that have doomed Bronco Mendenhall, BYU, and BYU fans for the past 6 years: 1) The TCU Horned Frogs and 2) The Big Game.  Let me explain why this Friday's game is so important for Bronco and BYU.

Coach Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs have been a thorn in
Bronco Mendenhall's side during the past three years.

This is only the 11th time BYU and TCU have squared off on the football field, and through the first 10 games the series is tied 5-5.  Doesn't seem that bad, right?  Well, does 101-17 ring a bell for you BYU fans?  If not, I'm sure you're like me as you've tried to forget the combined scores of the last 3 TCU victories over BYU from 2008-10 - an average score of 34-6!  What's more, the most "competitive" game BYU has had since beating TCU at home in 2007 was last year when the young Cougar team was only trailing #4-ranked TCU 3-0 with only a couple of minutes left in the first half before eventually falling 31-3.

Despite his recent lack of success against TCU, Bronco Mendenhall is looking forward to this made-for-TV matchup (thanks, ESPN!).  "I like the matchup and I like the game. I think it is a good football game that should have a lot of intrigue. Two teams with similar records and we're anxious to see if we can improve against this opponent."  If BYU is going to improve against this opponent, they will no doubt have to move the ball on offense and keep TCU from breaking out big plays against BYU's defense.  BYU will rely on its mid-season revelation, QB Riley Nelson, to continue to carry the Cougar offense as he has since he took over during another Friday night game against Utah State.

BYU Quarterback Riley Nelson has carried to Cougars on the ground and through
the air to a five-game winning streak. Nelson's performance will be key to a BYU
victory against TCU on Friday night on ESPN.

Not only has BYU's offensive efficiency improved but BYU has yet to have a "3 and out" on offense since Riley took the reins.  In fact, BYU has only punted 3 times during the 3 1/2 games that Riley has quarterbacked.  Bronco continues, "Riley's ability to create and get us out of bad plays with covered receivers and scramble for first downs helps keep momentum. Against a team like TCU that scores so many points and a team like TCU that we haven't even averaged a touchdown against in three years, we need to hold onto the ball and score points."

Do Bronco and BYU have a "Big Game Phobia"?  Ever since Bronco took over in 2005 and returned the BYU program to national prominence, BYU has been prevented from competing for national championship due to slow starts (such as this year's 1-2 start) and inconsistent play in Big Game opportunities.  I classify a Big Game as either a game against a nationally-ranked opponent or against a prominent football program that would give BYU the opportunity to jump onto the national scene and jump up the voter and BCS rankings.  Since 2008, for example, I would classify the following regular season games as Big Games:

2011 - @ Texas, vs. Utah
2010 - @ Utah, @ TCU, @ FSU
2009 - @ OU (Cowboy Stadium), vs. FSU, vs. TCU, vs. Utah
2008 - @ Utah, @ TCU

BYU's record in those 11 games?  2 wins and 9 losses.  One can only wonder what BYU's conference affiliation may be had they they won 3 or 4 more of those games.  Would the Pac-12 or Big 12 have considered BYU even more seriously if they had won those games against Utah and/or TCU?  I absolutely think that is the case.

BYU Running Back Bryan Kariya was instrumental in leading the Cougars
past Oklahoma in 2009, and he will be again be leading the team to Dallas.

So there has to be at least one thing that BYU can do to reverse the trend, right?  Turnovers.  BYU simply has to protect the ball and keep TCU's offense off the field. Of the Big Games above, the only game where BYU had a worse turnover ratio and actually won the game was against OU in 2009 despite giving up 4 turnovers and only taking away 2 from the Sooners.

If BYU expects to win or even compete on Friday, BYU will need to move the ball on the ground (200+ yards) and through the air (200+ yards).  Assuming BYU can do both of those things while not turning the ball over, BYU will extend its winning streak to 6 games and a double-digit win season can be within reach.

BYU 30, TCU 21.

Go Cougs!

Life-Saving Trades, Tebow and $$$

The Trade That Saved Jerome Harrison's Life
The mid-season NFL trade deadline usually comes and goes with little or no fanfare.  This is in stark contrast to the NBA or Major League Baseball trade deadlines where potential trades are discussed and hypothesized for what seems like months at a time.  The main reason for this lack of trade excitement in the NFL is due to the shorter regular season (16 games vs. 81 and 162 games for the NBA and MLB).  Each and every game is so important to a team's success that risking any mid-season effects due to a new or lost player is just not worth the potential benefits of a trade.  It's much safer for an NFL trade to occur in the offseason so that the players and teams that are affected can at least have the 6 weeks of practice and training camp to adjust to a new scheme or playbook.  One player who was traded prior to this year's NFL trade deadline is grateful that his proposed new team wanted him now rather than later.

Jerome Harrison is happy he was traded last week.  The trade
physical disclosed a brain tumor that alerted Harrison to get
the medical help he needed.

Detroit Lions running back Jerome Harrison was proposed to be traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for fellow running back Ronnie Brown along with a draft pick.  Both running backs were feeling rejuvenated to get to their new teams and help them push for the playoffs later this season.  However, Harrison complained of headaches during the mandatory physical prior to a trade being finalized, and the Eagles team physician order an MRI, which revealed that Harrison had a brain tumor.  The trade was voided and Harrison has already undergone surgery to remove the tumor.  Subsequent to any trade, analysts and experts debate which team received the best side of the deal, but I think we can all agree that this trade was a "win" for everyone involved.

Good luck and speedy recovery, Jerome!


Why Do People Not Want Tim Tebow To Succeed?
Ever since Tim Tebow burst onto the scene in 2006 with Florida as a change-of-pace, run-right-over-you kind of quarterback, he has been a lightning rod for lovers and haters.

The lovers worship Tebow for becoming the first sophomore ever to win the Heisman Trophy, for leading Florida to 2 National Championships, for being drafted in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft, for being a humanitarian, for serving multiple "missions" to the Philippines, and for being awarded the starting quarterback position for the Denver Broncos last week.

Bronco quarterback Tim Tebow will be watched and analyzed like never before
as he tried to validate all the Tebow-lovers and confound the Tebow-haters.

The haters despise Tebow for being overrated and receiving more credit than he deserves, for being blessed with an NFL-ready roster at Florida to shadow his lack of "traditional" quarterback skills, for being lucky that he rose so high in the NFL Draft, for coming across as a self-righteous Christian, and for winning the popularity contest in Denver so when first-string quarterback Kyle Orton consistently underperformed this season, Coach Fox had no choice but relent to the Bronco fans and start Tebow against the Miami Dolphins this last week.

Whether you are a lover or a hater, however, there is one thing about Tebow that you can't deny - he is a leader and a winner.  He has succeeded at every level and he seems to inspire his teammates to play at a different, higher level.  He will no doubt have his ups and downs as a quarterback in the NFL.  He is still realistically a rookie in terms of experience and only time will tell whether his prominent success in high school and college will translate at football's highest level.  In addition to his inherent ability to lead a team, Tebow's will to win and make plays results in a heightened ability to improvise when a play breaks down or his receivers aren't open.  Tebow will be exciting to watch whether you love him or hate him because he will make good plays, bad plays, and ugly plays.  In his first game as a starting quarterback this season, Bad Timmy had a rough 3 1/2 quarters against the winless Miami Dolphins, falling behind 15-0 with less than 5 minutes left in the game.  Then Good Timmy showed up and stormed the Broncos to an 18-15 overtime victory.  Interesting stat:  In his limited playing time during 2010 and 2011 so far, Tim Tebow has led the Broncos to as many come-from-behind wins after having 13+ point deficits in the fourth quarter as Bronco legend John Elway.  And that's why both the lovers and the haters will watch...and why they will probably both be right about Tim Tebow.

What Did We Pay For Again?
The Louisiana Superdome has hosted numerous championship sporting events, political conventions, and even hurricane refugees since it opened in 1975.  With yet another Super Bowl, a NCAA Final Four and other prominent events to take place in the Superdome during the next 16 months, Mercedes-Benz spent an undisclosed amount to own the naming rights for the next 10 years.  Given the low per-capita income levels in Louisiana (one of the lowest in the country), Mercedes-Benz is undoubtedly banking on the exposure of nationally-televised events, championship games, and the long-term success of the New Orleans Saints in order to reap the benefits of such a significant investment.  So what happens on the first national televised event last night on Sunday Night Football with the Saints taking on the Colts?  NBC mentioned the "Mercedes-Benz Superdome" only once!  According to Front Row Analytics, the lead play-by-play announcer Al Michaels said "The Superdome" as opposed to "The Mercedes-Benz Superdome" 7 times, which was estimated at a missed value of $1.19M for Mercedes-Benz.  Further, the Mercedez-Benz Superdome was on screen 16 times during the broadcast and Michaels only said the full name once.  Thanks for the love, NBC!  Please send Mercedes-Benz that $1.19M check in the mail at your convenience.

Things I Think #2

Theo Epstein will leave one previously-
cursed franchise for another one this Winter.

I think Theo Epstein will be successful running the Chicago Cubs, but he can't expect to lead the Cubs to its first World Series title since 1908 unless he signs Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder in the offseason this year.  Epstein was hired as a 28-year old General Manager of the Boston Red Sox in 2002 and created a culture of statistic evaluation, exposed market inefficiencies (go see "Moneyball"), and signed big-time free agents to carry the Red Sox to 2 World Series titles (2004 & 2007).  He can replicate that success in the Windy City, however, the championship Boston lineups were consistently stacked with sluggers such as Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz who delivered during Boston's run.  Last I checked, the Cubs had "sluggers" such as Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Pena.  First order of business: Get an upgrade, Theo.

I think the NBA season won't start until at least December.  The owners and the players are still just too far apart in their demands, and as they work towards solidifying a proposed ten-year deal, there is too much money on the table for both sides to want to rush into a deal to save some November basketball.  In fact, Carmelo Anthony has stated that he wants to return to Denver as a New York Knick to play his former team, the Nuggets, on November 16.  But if the NBA owners and players don't reach an agreement soon, then Melo's return to Denver would be canceled and not rescheduled this year.  Right now the NBA season is scheduled to start on November 15, but the stakes are too high for either side to cave before more games are lost.  However, both the owners and the players would be wise to give the NBA fans some basketball for Christmas so that any results gained from the prolonged lockout are not lost in the form of lower ticket and merchandise sales in both the short-term and the long-term.

The NBA owners have locked out its players, but some players like Jimmer
Fredette are keeping themselves busy by staying around campus and getting engaged.

I think Jimmer is a Super Senior.  I know that his fiancee is still a BYU student and a BYU cheerleader, and I know that the NBA owners have locked out players like Jimmer for the foreseeable future, leaving Jimmer without a day job, and I know the ESPN cameras love the guy, and I know that everyone in Provo still idolizes the guy, but let's be honest, he's a Super Senior...not that there's anything wrong with that.

All the Effects of Realignment

Pick Your "Big" Conference, TCU
In the latest twist of college football realignment TCU has accepted an invitation from the Big 12 Conference to become the 10th team in the Big 12 after the recent departure of Texas A&M to the SEC.  So TCU has left the Mountain West Conference, accepted an invitation to the Big East, won the Rose Bowl, left the Big East, and accepted an invitation to the Big 12 all within the last year.  So the Big 12 now has 10 teams, the Big 10 now has 12 teams, the Big East appears to be crumbling, and conference commissioners and university trustees everywhere continue looking for the best way to maximize their revenue potential.
 

TCU has celebrated an undefeated season, a Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin
(above) and 2 invitations to two different BCS conferences all within the last year.

As part of joining the Big 12, TCU will begin competing next year and will have to pay the Big East a $5 Million exit fee despite never actually playing a conference game.  Once it joins the Big 12 next year, TCU will begin to reap the financial rewards that come with joining a BCS conference and will easily pay back the Big East exit fee and pay for its ongoing football stadium reconstruction project.  But as TCU counts its dollars it should also count on saying goodbye to the undefeated seasons and the combined 25-1 record TCU compiled during the 2009 and 2010 seasons.  TCU has to know that it will be a little more difficult to win in the Big 12 when they're going to be replacing UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico on their schedules with Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State.  And if they don't believe me, then they should go and ask the Utah Utes.

No Matter What
Speaking of Utah, they returned to their home field after demolishing BYU 54-10 in one of most lopsided games of the college football season only to get steamrolled by Washington and Arizona State in consecutive weeks.  Welcome to the Pac-12!  Apparently Utah didn't learn anything from watching BYU turn the ball over to them seemingly possession after possession in Provo on September 17 because turnovers have been the Utes' demise in their first two Pac-12 home games.  Three interceptions and two fumbles contributed to the latest debacle against the Sun Devils, dropped the Utes to 0-3 in the Pac-12, and dashed any opportunity for a BCS Bowl game this year.  Where is UNLV when you need them?!  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham expressed his frustrations Saturday night by promising that "We'll start winning games when we stop turning the ball over.  That's the bottom line."

Cody Hoffman and the Cougars have recovered from the Utah blowout
by winning their next 3 games.  The Utes, however, have not had the same fate.

But before all you BYU fans start piling on the "Have fun going 2-7 in the Pac-12 bandwagon!", remember this, BYU lost to Utah 54-10.  At home.  On national television.  Utah could lose the rest of its games and BYU could win the rest of its games, but no matter what, no BYU fan should be heard talking about their superiority over the Utes until next September when the teams square off again.  Utah beat BYU.  Bad.  Let the Utes enjoy that 54-10 score and start counting the days until the BYU-Utah basketball game in December.

You Say Manure, I Say Fish Bait
Before the team TCU has to thank for its invitation to the Big 12 (SEC-bound Texas A&M Aggies) visited Texas Tech in Lubbock, Texas on Saturday, Texas A&M Athletic Director, Bill Byrne tweeted that the Texas A&M buses had been spray-painted and doused with manure by Texas Tech fans who apparently were eager to give the Aggies a farewell present or two as they were on their way to the SEC.  However, in a statement released today, Texas Tech officials "strongly condemned" vandalism, and said that fish bait, not manure, was used in the incident.  Oh, ok...thanks for the clarification.  Texas Tech went on further to say that the fish bait was dropped on the floor of one of the buses and that the "spray paint" was, in fact, washable shoe polish, and that the buses were cleaned before Byrne even saw them.  No one has admitted to the vandalism (although Texas Tech seems to know quite a bit of the details, don't they?).  Texas Tech indicated that they were relying on the information it received from the hotel management and the bus company.  Wow, all BYU got when they left the Mountain West last year was a few extra students dressed up as missionaries at a BYU-San Diego State basketball game, so I suppose it's true that everything is bigger in Texas - including the goodbye.

Nelson or Heaps? That is the Question

I'll never forget sitting in my 45-yard line seat in the East stands at a BYU football game trying to endure one of the grueling 4-8 Crowton years (2004) by cheering on the Cougars the best I could.  It was only after the offense sulked off the field after a quick "Three-and-out" in the middle of the 3rd quarter against a lowly MWC conference foe that the Cougar fan behind me yelled, "Fire, Norm!", as in fire Norm Chow who was last the BYU Offensive Coordinator 5 years prior in 1999.

Then there was last Friday night when I witnessed one of the more exciting BYU wins I can remember when backup quarterback Riley Nelson led the Cougars 96 yards to a game-winning touchdown over a hard-luck Utah State team in the closing seconds of the game.  After a failed Utah State attempt at a Hail Mary pass down the field to try and pull off an even greater miracle than what Riley Nelson had pulled off, the Cougars had been led to victory by their backup quarterback (and his hair...see the semi-hilarious "Ode to Riley Nelson's Hair" here).  Then they stormed the field.  Really?  I know it was exciting, but approximately 2,000 Cougar fans stormed the field chanting, "Ri-ley Nel-son!  Ri-ley Nel-son!"  Really? Against a middle-of-the-pack WAC team?  The cheers were well deserved as Nelson pulled victory from a slow, agonizing defeat on national television, but true Cougar fans would be wise to change the jeers back to cheers towards Jake Heaps if they want to have any chance at long-term success this season or through the next few years as BYU tries to make its pitch for national prominence and a potential spot in the BCS picture.

A quarterback controversy has surfaced in Provo as Nelson carried the
Cougars to an emotional victory past the in-state rival last Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, Riley Nelson is a key component of the BYU football team both this year and next year.  He is a leader that the team rallies behind and supports.  I love watching him on special teams and can't wait until he lays a hit on a punt returner a la Matt Payne back in the day. There is a ton of value in having a change of pace quarterback such as Nelson to keep opposing defenses from keying in on what can be a predictable BYU offense until Brandon Doman gets his feet underneath him as the Offensive Coordinator.  But Heaps has the NFL-ready arm (granted, he has looked like Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite throwing the football at times this year) and the talent to lead BYU football through the 2013 season.  John Beck had his growing pains before he was great.  Heaps is going through his.  His mental and physical toughness just need to catch up with that cannon of an arm.

I'm also not saying that BYU should implement a consistent two quarterback system like they tried to do at the beginning of the 2010 season.  Rotating quarterbacks every series is not good for either quarterback or for the team's success.  Heaps is the starter.  Go with the gun that does require some assembly, then teach it, coach it, and watch it carry the Cougars to a BCS game before Heaps is done at BYU.  Riley is most effective as the secret weapon ready to come out for key offensive plays when the offense needs a jolt.  But if Riley comes into a game as the starter, defenses will not respect BYU's passing game and will cram the line with 8 or 9 defenders making it even more difficult for BYU's running backs to run the ball effectively.  Ross Apo and Cody Hoffman, two of the most talented and sizable receivers BYU has ever had, would be ineffective for the next three years as they would not be able to hope that every key pass play is tipped into their hands (like what happened at the end of the Utah State game).

Tebow and Leak gave BYU's coaches a path to success
for Nelson and Heaps during this year and next year.

Remember when Tim Tebow burst onto the scene in 2006?  Chris Leak was Florida's drop-back passer who had struggled at times throughout his first 3 years at Florida, but when coupled with Tebow's ability to make plays and lead the team, it made Leak step up his effort and his concentration level and led Florida to a much more successful offensive output.  By the way, the well-coached dual-quarterback approach carried Florida to the National Championship.

After Heaps came into 2011 with so many expectations after such a positive end to the 2010 season, it is easy to see why many Cougar fans are disappointed in his Uncle Rico-like results so far this year.  But BYU should stay the course with Heaps and let him develop into the quarterback he has the potential to be.  BYU does not have a difficult schedule coming up so it shouldn't matter whether Heaps or Nelson plays, so why not stick with Heaps, mix in a little Riley, and build the offense into a potent powerhouse for years to come?

Stay the course.  Continue to shoot the cannon.